On January 15th, the 2024 presidential nominating process kicked off and voters from all states will pick their party’s nominee for president ahead of the summer conventions.
By Rose, 10.1
This year, most of the candidates dropped out under the shadow of the same two men who faced off in 2020: President Joe Biden and former President Donald J. Trump. Biden, a member of the Democratic Party, is running for re-election, whilst Trump, a member of the Republican Party, is running for a re-election non-consecutively for a second time. If both Biden and Trump are nominated by their parties, it will mark the first presidential re-match since 1956. On top of this, Robert F. Kennedy Jr, a prominent anti-vaccine activist is running for the third-party candidate; he’s had the highest polling for a third-party candidate since Ross Perot in 1992.
If you took a hint from the title, you’ll know that this article will mainly on Donald Trump. As previously mentioned, Trump’s re-election is one of just a handful of ex-presidents running again after losing an election. There’s nothing historically special about it. But what does this mean for the future of America?
When Donald Trump lost the 2020 election, he insisted that the votes were rigged and stolen from him. Those on social media who believed his false claims are Trump’s strongest supporters, with 82% backing him and only 14% saying they support Haley or DeSantis in New Hampshire. About half of the potential Republican voters in New Hampshire believe that Biden won the 2020 election due to ‘voter fraud.’ Was this Trump’s initial motive? To gain supporters through false rumors? We’ll never know.
However, even with Trump’s questionable motives and his influence over other candidates, it is admissible to suggest the immense impact Donald Trump has on the election. He holds a clear lead amongst numerous states over his last remaining challenger Nikki Haley. In New Hampshire, the poll from Washington Post-Monmouth has shown that 52% of primary voters support Trump whilst 34% are backing Haley. Despite how Haley’s supporters have doubled since November, Trump’s support has also grown by 6%, and he’s benefited from the withdrawal and endorsement of a wealthy entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. Generally, Trump has been buoyed by strong support from conservatives whilst Haley has been securing support amongst moderates and independent voters. These undeclared voters play a significant role for Haley as they support Haley over Trump by 10 points: 48% to 38%. Nevertheless, she has a hard time persuading the conservatives that make up a larger portion of the electorate; Trump enjoys a 68-point lead amongst the very conservative voters and a 29-point lead amongst somewhat conservative voters. He also has advantages against Haley in handling 4 different issues of immigration, economic, foreign, and abolition policies among New Hampshire GOP (Grand Old Party) voters.
It’s still too early to have a definite vision for the future, but it’s clear that Nikki Haley has made it her mission to be America’s stronger option against the Biden-Trump rematch.
“Bring it Donald, show me what you got!” - Nikki Haley.
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